Thursday, March 23, 2006

Raider Who May Have Lost His Arc

Aaron Brooks is the new Raider starting quarterback. The plan seems to be let him start for a little while, then let Andrew Walter will take over. (I think being a starter for the Raiders is over for Marques Tuasisopo, at least in their minds).

Brooks had it all going for him, but for the last year and a half, he seems like a below average quarterback who occasionally has a good game.

Of course, this also could be said for Gus Ferotte, and he went out and had a good season for the Dolphins. And Brooks' numbers aren't that bad, taken as a whole.

Season Team G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int
2000-01 New Orleans 8 85.7 113 194 58.2 1514 189.3 7.8 9 6
2001-02 New Orleans 16 76.4 312 558 55.9 3832 239.5 6.9 26 22
2002-03 New Orleans 16 80.1 283 528 53.6 3572 223.3 6.8 27 15
2003-04 New Orleans 16 88.8 306 518 59.1 3546 221.6 6.8 24 8
2004-05 New Orleans 16 79.5 309 542 57.0 3810 238.1 7.0 21 16
2005-06 New Orleans 13 70.0 240 431 55.7 2882 221.7 6.7 13 17
Career 85 79.7 1563 2771 56.4 19156 225.4 6.9 120 84

Aaron Brooks took over a newly reconfigured Saints team for Jeff Blake, who was doing a great job, and he led them to the playoffs his first year, winning the franchise's only playoff game. But the past few years, it hasn't been the same. Last year, the entire season was just a bad year for the Saints. With Katrina, one is inclined to give the whole franchise and all of the players a pass. I know I am.

It'll be interesting to see what the Raiders can do with Brooks. He has a strong arm, and they want to throw the ball downfield. And they have Randy Moss and Jerry Porter.

Andrew Walter should be ready to start in the NFL soon. He was a fine pick by the Raiders, and he will be the guy for Art Shell at some point.

Here are Walter's numbers at Arizona State.

Year G/GS Comp/Att Yds. Pct. TD/Int. Lg. Avg./G Eff.
2001 11/2 38/86 546 44.2 3/2 53 49.6 104.4
2002 14/10 274/483 3877 56.7 28/15 85 276.9 137.1
2003 12/12 221/421 3044 52.5 24/10 80 253.7 127.3
2004 11/11 244/426 3150 57.3 30/9 79 286.4 138.4
Total 48/35 777/1416 10617 54.9 85/36 85 221.2 132.6

Bears Win Race for Griese Monkey

In the race for Brian Griese, it appears the Bears beat out the Bengals. Don Pierson of the Chicago Tribune, one of the best football writers in the country, said (at least by implication if not outright) that he likes Griese better than Jay Fiedler, Jeff Blake, Gus Ferotte, Jeff Garcia, and Jon Kitna.

The one thing this does is move Kyle Orton back to third string. I am a huge Kyle Orton fan, and I think that the Bears ain't really treating him right after his stint as the starter last year. Another thing this does is give some competition to Rex Grossman. Is Brian Griese better than Sexy Rexy? I don't know, and neither, really, does anyone else.

How much does a quarterback like Brian Griese cost? It seems that he is a five year, at least $14 million with at least a $4 million signing bonus.

Brad Biggs of the Suntimes reports that Griese signed with the Bears because of Lovie Smith's quick hook for quarterbacks. Fair enough.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/sports/cst-spt-bear22.html

Geoff Hobson's story on Bengals dot com says that Aaron Brooks considers himself a starter, so the Bengals don't fit. They may be down to Joey Harrington and Jaimie Martin. I still want them to explore the Jay Fiedler option. But I am fine with Joey Harrington.

http://www.bengals.com/news/news.asp?story_id=5149

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

John Sandusky, longtime NFL assistant, dies at 80

John Sandusky died recently. If you were from Ohio, you knew of John Sandusky. If you were a lineman, you knew of John Sandusky.

He was a line coach in the NFL for 35 years. He coached some of the best offensive lines in the history of the NFL.

Again, I would like to state: There is a real need for referees in the pro football hall of fame. Can't have a game without them, and we all notice the real good ones from the average ones.

And there is a real need for assistant coaches in the pro football hall of fame. No team doesn't have them. And we all can spot the real good ones from the average ones.

Baltimore Sun

"He was part Irish, part Polish," [Don Shula] the former Miami Dolphins and
Colts coach said of Sandusky. "But the Irish part, he had that great Irish voice
and he sang those great Irish songs like 'Danny Boy.' Invariably when we went
out together as a staff, John would burst out in song. And I never got tired of
listening to it."John was a great teacher, and on top of that, he was just a
wonderful human being."

The First Cut Is the Deepest: Can Any Early Cuts Help the Bengals?

The following players have been waived. Several of these players represent an upgrade at a position, and, depending on cap number, salary, and health, might be good pickups. The Bengals need a defensive tackle (or two) and a safety (or two).

Defensive Tackle
Sam Adams, DT BUFFALO
Brentson Buckner, DT CAROLINA
La'Roi Glover, DT DALLAS
Ted Washington, DT OAKLAND

Let's start at defensive tackle. Three of the four big DTs are just that, big DTs. Washington, Adams, and Buckner are big take-up-two-blockers, two-gap run-stuffers at their best. They all probably have left their best days behind. Washington at his best was a Hall of Fame type DT. Adams was a Pro Bowl level DT. Bucker was a big dude with occasional ability. All would probably be a step up from Bryan Robinson. But the Bengals will probably choose to go the youth route. I would hope, however, that they at least give Ted Washington a call. Glover is 6-2, 285 or 290. He is a one-gap DT, and was probably the premier one-gap DT for a year or two in New Orleans. Had a couple of good years for the Cowboys, but when Dallas went 3-4, Glover became a bad fit. He is too small for a nose, and, at 30-plus, he probably wasn't given the opportunity to win a DE spot. Pittsburgh would have used him as a DE, though. Glover is a step up from John Thorton, but Thorton is probably going to be more value priced. Someone will take Glover. [Note: Glover has already been signed by the Rams, who may have had a worse problem stopping the run than the Bengals]. And I think the Bengals need a two-gap guy more. It would surprise me, however, if they go for one of these older guys.

Safety
Marcus Coleman, S HOUSTON
Tebucky Jones, S MIAMI
Lawyer Milloy, S BUFFALO

To me, this is a no-brainer. After Madieu Williams and Kim Herring got hurt and missed most of the season, the Bengals were left with probably the worst set of starting safeties in the NFL. Kevin Kaesviharn and Ifeanyi Ohalete were the Bengals starters for most of the season. Kaesviharn is a former corner who doesn't have enough speed and can't cover that well. He also is a poor tackler. Ohalete -- who was cut by the Cardinals at the beginning of the season and picked up by Cincy when they put Herring on IR -- is a big safety without enough speed who occasionally hits hard. But he misses more than he hits and tight ends just roam free. I wanted the Bengals to go with Herna Daze-Jones or Patrick Body or both, just to give them experience. It didn't seem that they could be much worse. With Williams coming back, I think the Bengals need to get one veteran safety. Williams was moving toward Ed Reed territory as far as safeties go by the end of his rookie year. I hope that he if fully recovered and ready to start at free safety. As far as strong safety, I would go for Tebucky Jones, a classic strong safety, if he doesn't cost that much. He played in only six games in '05, so he may need some rehab. But he's big, fast, strong, and experienced. Lawyer Milloy is a little small for a strong safety, but he is ultra productive and would be fine. I would take a pass on Marcus Coleman. But, hey, worse comes to worse, so to speak, he's better than nothing.

Defensive End
Trevor Pryce, DE DENVER
Brady Smith, DE ATLANTA

Always pays to look at who else is out there. I like Brady Smith, but someone else will like him more. Trevor Pryce is not my cup of tea. There will probably be better DEs cut later. And this isn't really an area of need.

Quarterback
Tony Banks, QB HOUSTON
Kerry Collins, QB OAKLAND
Jay Fiedler, QB NEW YORK JETS
Tommy Maddox, QB PITTSBURGH

With Jon Kitna set to find a new home, Cincinnati needs a veteran backup QB. I would sign Jay Fiedler in a heartbeat. I like him. He is a lot like Kitna. The only problem is that Fiedler had a shoulder injury and was out for many months. I think the Jets cut him because they didn't want to chance it that he couldn't come back by sometime in training camp to help. But I think the Bengals should look longer term, and Fiedler is the sort of guy that can carry the old clipboard and make everyone feel better. So I would sign him. And, I would sign another veteran. Right now, these are the other guys available. Ouch. Out of the three of these guys, I think I would take Tommy Maddox. He will be cheap, and maybe he could be an OK guy for a couple of games if you needed him. I would feel more comfortable if he was a third-stringer. Same with Banks. Collins would be a good second-stringer, but I don't see him coming cheap. Hopefully there will be better options a little later.

Cornerback
Andre Dyson, CB SEATTLE
Michael Harden, CB SEATTLE
Reggie Howard, CB MIAMI
Sam Madison, CB MIAMI
Denard Walker, CB OAKLAND
Eric Warfield, CB KANSAS CITY
Willie Williams, CB PITTSBURGH

The Bengals have had two straight cornerbacks make the Pro Bowl in two straight years, which shows you what a crock of manure the Pro Bowl is. The base your corner play on interceptions only. On the theory that you can never have too many corners, here's what's available. I like Madison and Dyson from the above list. If value priced, I'd bring 'em in. But they probably won't be value priced. Charles Woodson is also probably going to be available. The Bengals need to suck it up and start trying to get corners through the draft. And is Keiwan Ratliff a starter? I don't know. But I think James may be nearing the end (perhaps he can be a free safety?), and O'Neal is occasionally great, frequently maddening.

Offensive Line
Brad Hopkins, OT TENNESSEE
Kevin Mawae, C N.Y. JETS
Damion McIntosh, OT MIAMI
Ron Stone, G OAKLAND

I like Mawae, and I would bring him in if you could. Hopkins would be a great backup. He can play left tackle, and he is built like a guard, so one would hope that he could play guard. Mawae and Hopkins both are probably better than a starter for the Bengals, and both could probably start. Both will probably cost too much, and are too old. McIntonsh and Stone are backup material only. Both are also probably too expensive.

thankyouverymuch,

OldCleat

Saturday, March 04, 2006

Reds' Best Lineup?

There is a lineup analysis tool on the Internet (wow, I think this thing may catch on!). It does some cipherin' on the best lineup you can have to score the most runs, based on on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Put in the 2006 Reds lineup, using 2005 stats.

Don't know why I did this, but here are the top 10 results.

Best Lineups Runs per Game 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

4.942 Jason LaRue Adam Dunn Austin Kearns Ken Griffey Felipe Lopez Wily Mo Pena Edwin Encarnacion Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.941 Adam Dunn Felipe Lopez Austin Kearns Ken Griffey Jason LaRue Wily Mo Pena Edwin Encarnacion Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.938 Adam Dunn Felipe Lopez Jason LaRue Ken Griffey Austin Kearns Wily Mo Pena Edwin Encarnacion Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.937 Jason LaRue Adam Dunn Austin Kearns Ken Griffey Felipe Lopez Edwin Encarnacion Wily Mo Pena Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.937 Adam Dunn Jason LaRue Austin Kearns Ken Griffey Felipe Lopez Wily Mo Pena Edwin Encarnacion Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.936 Adam Dunn Felipe Lopez Austin Kearns Ken Griffey Jason LaRue Edwin Encarnacion Wily Mo Pena Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.936 Jason LaRue Felipe Lopez Austin Kearns Ken Griffey Adam Dunn Wily Mo Pena Edwin Encarnacion Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.934 Adam Dunn Austin Kearns Jason LaRue Ken Griffey Felipe Lopez Wily Mo Pena Edwin Encarnacion Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.934 Adam Dunn Felipe Lopez Jason LaRue Ken Griffey Austin Kearns Edwin Encarnacion Wily Mo Pena Aaron Harang Ryan Freel

4.933 Jason LaRue Adam Dunn Felipe Lopez Ken Griffey Austin Kearns Wily Mo Pena Edwin Encarnacion Aaron Harang Ryan Freel


http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Jason+LaRue&OBA0=.355&Slug0=.452&Player1=Felipe+Lopez&OBA1=.352&Slug1=.486&Player2=Adam+Dunn&OBA2=.387&Slug2=.540&Player3=Ken+Griffey&OBA3=.369&Slug3=.576&Player4=Austin+Kearns&OBA4=.333&Slug4=.452&Player5=Ryan+Freel&OBA5=.371&Slug5=.371&Player6=Wily+Mo+Pena&OBA6=.304&Slug6=.492&Player7=Edwin+Encarnacion&OBA7=.308&Slug7=.436&Player8=Aaron+Harang&OBA8=.027&Slug8=.027&Model=0


And here's the tipsheet I found at another website.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

1. This is the most OBP-centric spot in the lineup. Your hitter here might very well be your best hitter, IF his best attribute is his OBP. A hitter with a .425 OBP and a .500 SLG would fit in here well, provided that there's not a better OBP threat elsewhere on the roster. When I looked at it, I decided that Derek Jeter is really the optimal leadoff hitter. He has a good OBP and acceptable power, and he's generally a solid hitter.

2. The 2-hitter should be the lineup's most balanced hitter, a good combination of OBP and SLG. David Wright fits the bill here, as does the player I chose, Chase Utley. The first guy I thought of was Mike Lowell in his prime, when I looked at the results and coefficients.

3. This was the biggest surprise: the 3 hitter should be the player that doesn't fit into any of the other spots. Every other spot has some significance, but if I were building a lineup, I would just put the leftover player in the 3 hole. This seemed very counterintuitive to me when I first heard it, but David Pinto noted, "Part of what it's telling us is that you need to spread out your easy outs." I still struggled to get this, but I'm starting to, now. Marc said something to the effect of "the worst players have to go somewhere." I guess this is really it; the other spots just have greater needs. If you can get a good hitter here, it means that your lineup is very deep.

4. This is the bopper. This guy's best attribute should be his power, with OBP being of secondary importance. He should be the foil to the leadoff hitter, in a way; both players could be similar if they're both very complete. Andruw Jones, though, is an ideal #4 hitter: slightly above average OBP, and "phenomenal cosmic power," to quote Aladdin.

5. Picking the 5 hitter is simple: it's the second choice for the two slot. Paul Konerko, who I picked for this spot, had a very similar line to our #2 hitter, Chase Utley.

6. The 6 hitter shows the biggest difference between SLG and OBP on the roster. This is because you're going to want to have guys driving in the leftovers. The 6 hitter is the most exclusively power-dependent hitter of the bunch. His OBP is VERY unimportant. Alfonso Soriano and Jay Gibbons are good picks for this
slot.

7. The 7 hitter is the less extreme version of the 6 hitter, with less of a need for power and more usage for OBP. I picked Vernon Wells here.

8. This is the worst hitter in the lineup. If it's the pitcher, he goes here, unless it's Dontrelle Willis or Jason Marquis or someone similar. This is because you'd rather not put the pitcher close to two of the best hitters in the lineup: the 1 and 2.

9. The 9 hitter should be a "punchless wonder," of sorts. Scott Podsednik, Gregg Zaun, and Brad Ausmus fit into this role nicely: guys with acceptable OBPs and absolutely no power. This is the "stereotypical leadoff hitter" to the extreme. He's not actually leading off because you don't necessarily want these guys to imbibe plate appearances, I think.

This is all very new stuff, and I could have interpreted this wrong. I think that Cyril Morong is onto something because you CAN rationalize these positions, even if there's a high level of initial cognitive dissonance. I would say that you should try to go over this checklist when you try and optimize the lineup for whatever team you want, and see if it checks out or comes close to it.

And They Called It, "Tuffy Love"

Love the Tuffy.

LOVE THE TUFFY!

Tuffy Rhodes is back and badder than ever.

Tuffy Rhodes signs with the Cincinnati Reds. I actually think he has a 1-in-10 shot to make the team (but, really, who knows? It would be a better shot if Jim Bowden were still the GM). Rhodes has been called the greatest American player in the history of Japanese Baseball (at least according to the headline from The Japan Times; I couldn't click on the story).

Tuffy Rhodes: the best ever foreign player in Japan The Japan Times, Japan - Feb 18, 2006 The 10-year Japan career of Tuffy Rhodes has apparently come to an end with the announcement last week he had signed a contract with his hometown team, the ...

Here's another story.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060222&content_id=1319606&vkey=spt2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

http://www.middletownjournal.com/sports/content/sports/stories/2006/03/01/mj030206redsnotes.html

The Reds have signed on a lot of veteran players in the bullpen and on the bench.

http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060302/SPT05/603020326/1035

Bullpen: 36-year-old David Weathers, 37-year-old Rick White, 38-year-old Kent Mercker and 40-year-old Chris Hammond.

Bench: 34-year-old Rich Aurilia and 35-year-old Frank Menechino and 35-year-old Quinton McCracken and 36-year-old Scott Hatteberg and 36-year-old Tony Womack and 37-year-old Tuffy Rhodes.

And out of those guys, who do I love? I LOVE THE TUFFY!

Looking at that bench, hells bells, Johnny Bench is only 58.

Last year, it was Aaron Holbert. (Don't worry, Aaron. Still pulling for you this year. But Tuffy's a better story right now.)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/holbeaa01.shtml

This year, so far, it's Tuffy Rhodes.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rhodeka01.shtml

I live in Chicago, surrounded by Cubs fans and (curiously enough, many more) Sox fans. And never will I forget when Karl Tuffy Rhodes took Doc Gooden deep three consecutive times on Opening Day 1994. This was made especially important to me because of an inside joke I had and still have with a coworker regarding Jim Frey, who went to Western Hills High School in Cincinnati (as did Tuffy Rhodes, Don Zimmer, and Pete Rose [you betcha]). (I had a date to a high school dance with Jim Frey's niece back in the Seventies. Still cracks my friend up.) Doc Gooden was still considered a pretty damned good pitcher Opening Day 1994.

Here is the Cubs 1994 Opening Day starters (in alpha order), provided by Baseball Almanac:

1994 Chicago Cubs
Opening Day Starters
Steve Buechele
Shawon Dunston
Mark Grace
Derrick May
Mike Morgan
Karl Rhodes
Ryne Sandberg
Sammy Sosa
Rick Wilkins

And to think they were 49-64.

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

NFL Combine on NFLNetwork

Did you watch the coverage of the combine on the NFL Network?

Oh, Pete Rozelle, what have you wrought?

I have major issues with the NFL combine. I think there are too many people making too many decisions about too many players instead of seeing if these players can play football.

Every time that I think it is easing up, I hear things like Jay Cutler is passing up Vince Young as a higher rated QB, based on what Cutler did in shorts in Indy. I thought that Vince Young was a first-round pick, a top-15 pick, after the Rose Bowl Game. Not the USC-Texas thriller, but the Michigan-Texas thriller in 2005 when Vince ran for 192 yards and four touchdowns and passed for 180 yards and one touchdown.

He had a better season last year, and a better Rose Bowl game for the National Championship.

I don't get it. Not Jay Cutler. Sorry. And maybe Jay Cutler will be a fine NFL quarterback. But what does Vince Young need to do?

Vernon Davis, tight end from Maryland, ran a 4.38 40 at 255 chisled pounds. The speeds of these things just keep getting more ridiculous. Having said that, I like that Leonard Pope of Geogia and would draft him first as a tight end. Probably that Byrd kid from USC would be No. 2.

Joseph Addai as a first-round pick? Not me. I think he's about Mewelde Moore. Which ain't all that bad, but not a first-round pick.