Rick Spielman and the 40 Time at Indy

There is a great column on ESPN Insider by former Dolphin GM Rick Spielman on the Combine and what scouts and medical personnel look for in Indy.

Here is the URL, but I think you need to pay for this premium content:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/insider/columns/story?columnist=spielman_rick

Below are a few of the more interesting quotes:

When I was with the Miami Dolphins, we would hold a specific combine meeting with everyone who would be attending to go over each player on our board and identify specific things we needed to find out about them.

Of all the tests and evaluations performed at the combine, [medical evaluation] might have the biggest influence on whether a team will draft a player, regardless of
how he grades out as a football player. Teams will take players off their draft board if the doctors decide it is not worth the medical risk to draft the player.

Some people might wonder what scouts possibly can evaluate when a player stands alone on a stage in just his shorts. ... Some teams will go as far as identifying tattoos that could be gang related.

Spielman also spouts the usual stuff about thinking every player should run the 40 at the combine, and that fast players are fast and slow players are slow and blah blah blah. This is the one-way street stuff that galls me.

First off, NFL scouts put SO much value in the 40 time that a player can hurt his draft status incredibly by turning in a slow time. A player can enhance his status by ripping it up in the 40. There are many examples of the 40 time being a determining factor.

And the funny thing is, much like my college GPA, which I don't mention in polite company, NOBODY ever, EVER brings up a 40 time for 98 percent of the guys in the NFL again. If you can play, you can play.

(Of course, I get sucked into the 40-time thing more than I would like to. It is pretty impressive when you hear some of the 40 times of some of those guys, such as Samie Parker of Oregon or Bethel Johnson out of Texas A&M, who each seemed to have about a 4.28 40.)

Pat Kirwan wrote a column in 2004 regarding the 40 time, and I found it online.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/7095858

In it, he sort of advocates finding players who are great college players and who look very athletic in every phase of the game, but who blow their 40 times. His two examples are Domanick Davis and Anquan Boldin, who had bad 40 times and were docked in the draft, and turned out to be NFL players. I don't think players should be upgraded because of bad work in Indy, of course. I think it was Bill Walsh who said that Bill Walsh's genius in drafting players was that he only really looked at what players did in college games as the indication of what they could do, not their size or 40 times or arm strenghth or anything else.

Here are some quotes from the Kirwan piece:

As one prominent agent said to me this week when I asked him if his top clients were working out in Indy, he said 'no, and for two big reasons: Domanick Davis and Anquan Boldin'. Both of those young players last year felt they had to do everything at the combine so they participated and they ran slow. Their draft status was damaged in the eyes of club officials with the slow times.

Why take a slow player when you can take a fast player? Maybe because the "slower" player is a better football player? Davis ran a 4.62, which is a bit too slow for an elite running back. Boldin ran an awful 4.72, which is snails pace for a wide receiver. Of course, both players went on to have excellent rookie seasons in the NFL. Davis ran for 1,031 yards and eight touchdowns as the top rookie running back in the league for Houston and Boldin caught 101 passes for 1,377 yards and eight touchdowns. Their football production far outweighed their 40-yard times, but Davis was drafted in the fourth round and Boldin went in the second round.

All I can think about if I were running a personnel department right now is to tell my staff, 'go find the Domanick Davis and Anquan Boldin of this draft.'

I took a look at the All-Rookie team and a number of rookies who excelled this past season that were drafted no higher than the fourth round to find the common thread as to why they were drafted lower than where they actually performed.

Panthers cornerback Ricky Manning started in the Super Bowl. After he won the starting job, his team went 6-1 on the road. He was drafted in the fourth round and he ran a slow 40 (4.53) at the combine. He ran faster later in the spring but was ranked anywhere between eighth and 12th on most cornerback lists. One college scout admitted his combine 40 time was a factor.

There is a great opportunity waiting for the people responsible for a team's draft to look at combine results differently and find those special players most teams will be downgrading this week because of a less-than-stellar performance.

As one of smartest football friends I have in the NFL said to me this week, 'there is a competitive edge to be gained from changing the way I use the results of the combine. I hope after all these years I can try different ways of using the information we gather in Indianapolis'.

Shootin' the Brees: I'd Take Pennington

There are reports that the Jets are going to cut Chad Pennington because of his huge salary. Here's the math:

The team is about $26 million over the cap and needs to come to an agreement with Pennington before the start of free agency March 3.

Pennington's agent, Tom Condon, reportedly rejected a deal that would have reduced the quarterback's base salary from $9 million to $1 million.

The Jets started renegotiating with the franchise quarterback last week, hoping to slash his base pay to make his contract more salary-cap friendly.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=At2nGObED3qKvpTMq_Mtkl5DubYF?slug=ap-jets-pennington&prov=ap&type=lgns

And the Chargers are going to let Drew Brees go in free agency, supposedly.

San Diego general manager A. J. Smith said Monday the team has declined to designate Brees as its franchise or transition player.

If the Chargers had slapped either of the tags on Brees, he would be guaranteed nearly $10 million in a one-year salary next season. That's too rich for the Chargers, considering Brees was injured in the team's season finale, tearing the labrum in his throwing shoulder while trying to recover a fumble.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-chargers-brees&prov=ap&type=lgns

So two young quarterbacks, two bad shoulders. You are a NFL team. Which quarterback do you go for?

I like Drew Brees. Thought he was a heckuva QB out of Purdue. Thought the Dolphins should have picked him at the end of the first round in 2001, when, instead, they took Jamar Fletcher, the cornerback from Wisconsin (my brother-in-law, Dave-o, a huge Dolphin fan, almost had a cow, a whole steer, when the Dolphins announced that pick).

But, for my money, I would take Pennington on the open market. When healthy, I think Pennington is a better player. If they are both hurt, they are just hurt. But if they are both healthy, Pennington, in my mind, is the much better quarterback. Here are the numbers:

Brees
Season Team G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int

2001-02 San Diego 1 94.8 15 27 55.6 221 221.0 8.2 1 0
2002-03 San Diego 16 76.9 320 526 60.8 3284 205.3 6.2 17 16
2003-04 San Diego 11 67.5 205 356 57.6 2108 191.6 5.9 11 15
2004-05 San Diego 15 104.8 262 400 65.5 3159 210.6 7.9 27 7
2005-06 San Diego 16 89.2 323 500 64.6 3576 223.5 7.2 24 15
Career 59 84.9 1125 1809 62.2 12348 209.3 6.8 80 53

Pennington
2000-01 NY Jets 2 127.1 2 5 40.0 67 33.5 13.4 1 0
2001-02 NY Jets 2 79.6 10 20 50.0 92 46.0 4.6 1 0
2002-03 NY Jets 15 104.2 275 399 68.9 3120 208.0 7.8 22 6
2003-04 NY Jets 10 82.9 189 297 63.6 2139 213.9 7.2 13 12
2004-05 NY Jets 13 91.0 242 370 65.4 2673 205.6 7.2 16 9
2005-06 NY Jets 3 70.9 49 83 59.0 530 176.7 6.4 2 3
Career 45 92.1 767 1174 65.3 8621 191.6 7.3 55 30

I lot of what I like about Chad Pennington is from his 2002 season, which was a long time ago. But to me, his best is better than Brees's best. And Pennington's worst isn't that much worse than Brees's worst. I would be willing to gamble on Pennington coming back and being great again.

A team is going to have to shell out a great deal of money for Drew Brees. A team will have to load Pennington's contract with a bunch of incentives. The better deal is Chad Pennington.

Maybe Reggie Bush to the Texans Isn't a Slam Dunk

According to Peter King, the Texans aren't sold on Reggie Bush. Or at least that is what Charlie Casserly, the Houston GM, has told King. or at least that is the Texans negotiating ploy.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=ArIekHCA5jRE6Lhg6ZPN9H5DubYF?slug=cnnsi-firstthingsfirs&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns

"There's been no guarantee that we'll take Bush,'' Casserly told me. "We're wide
open. We're wide open for trades for the pick. The way I see it, here are our
options. Keep David Carr and take Reggie Bush. Keep David Carr and draft Vince
Young. Take Vince Young and see what we can get in trade for David Carr. And
trade down. We're going to visit with people at Indianapolis and take our time.
Nothing will get done, I wouldn't think, until the week before the
draft.''

I think it is a little better to just go with the flow on this and see if you can get a talent like Bush wrapped up before the draft. I also don't want to hear the bull about Bush being durable enough. It just doesn't make sense to me.

Peter King says: "My biggest question about Bush has been -- and continues to be
-- this: Can he be an every-down player in the NFL? This is a guy who rushed
more than 20 times twice in a three-year USC career, and who, playing at around
198 pounds, will have massive durability questions in the
NFL."

"It's the same question we're asking ourselves internally,
quite frankly,'' said Casserly. "He didn't do it in college, and you don't know
if he can do it in the NFL."

Charlie, Charlie, Charlie. I hope you are just blowing smoke up someone's bloomers. I think the guy is Cadillac Williams, only better. I think he is Clinton Portis, only faster. I think he is Marshall Faulk. Reggie Bush is about Marshall Faulk. And with the way that teams pass the ball, Bush doesn't have to carry it 20 times a game between the tackles every game. Just some games. And Bush has always looked plenty tough to me.


Let's take a look at the top running backs in the NFL draft for the last several years.

2005

Ronnie Brown, No. 2 overall, Miami: Looked pretty damned good his rookie year. Split carries with Ricky Williams toward middle and end of year. Hopefully didn't split brownies with Williams.

Cedric Benson, No. 4, Chicago: Held out. Couldn't win starting job from former No. 7 overall pick Thomas Jones.

Carnell Cadillac Williams, No. 5, Tampa Bay: Was the top rookie running back last season, and won several honors as offensive rookie of the year.

J.J. Arrington, No. 44, Arizona: Was it JJ's lack of burst or an offense-wide problem with Arizona not being able to run the ball? Arrington didn't look very good his rookie year.

2004

Steven Jackson, No. 24, Rams: Was good enough to take Marshall Faulk's starting job away. With the Rams moving away from a pass-drunk offense, Jackson may move to being a top NFL running back. Big and fast, Jackson needs to continue working on his game.

Chris Perry, No. 26, Cincinnati: Was slated as a second-rounder. Missed most of his rookie year with an injury, but was productive as a sophomore as a third-down back. Showed a surprising burst.

Kevin Jones, No. 30, Detroit: Looked better as a rookie than last year, though he had to battle some injury woes as a sophomore. May be getting the ball a lot as the Lions move away from the San Fran West Coast offense.

Tatum Bell, No. 41, Denver: Is a part-time starter. Very, very fast, and looks like he can be productive in the Denver system.

Julius Jones, No. 43, Dallas: There are times that Julius looks like the best back in this class. He is powerfully built, can read his blockers, and shows a nice burst with some breakaway speed.


2003

Willis McGahee, No. 23, Buffalo: Sat out a redshirt year as a rookie because of injury. There are times that McGahee looks like a top-5 back in the NFL. There are times that he doesn't. Has all the tools, and still may put them together.

Larry Johnson, No. 27, Kansas City: Looked a little like a bust after his first season and a half. There was some talk about KC giving up on him and moving on before last year. I'll be they are glad they didn't. Had one of the best half a seasons in football history the last half of 2005. He gained 1,351 yards in the last nine games of the season, with 16 rushing touchdowns. He is one of the top three backs in football right now.

Ernie Stautner, NFL Tough Guy

Ernie Stautner died this past week.

I remember him best as the defensive coach for Tom Landry, but I also know that he was a defensive tackle for the Steelers in the 1950s and a Hall of Famer. When I was younger, it was always my impression that he was HUGE.

Nothing could have been further from the truth.

Reading some of the obits, it seems that he was a precursor to one of my favorite playes, Tim Krumrie.

Here are some obits with some great quotes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/17/sports/football/17stautner.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

At 6-foot-1 and about 235 pounds, he was small for his position, even in that
era, but he was chosen to play in the Pro Bowl nine times and was voted to the
N.F.L.'s All-Star team four times.

Jim Parker, the Hall of Fame offensive guard who died last July, as once saying of Stautner: "That man ain't human. He's too strong to be human. He's the toughest guy in the league to play against because he keeps coming headfirst. Swinging those forearms wears you down. That animal used to stick his head in my belly and drive me into the backfield so hard that when I picked myself up and looked around, there was a path chopped through the field like the farmer had run a plow over it."

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/football/nfl/stories/021706dnspostautner.323f3346.html

"He was from an era where football was built and was one of the toughest guys
I've ever known," former Cowboys safety Cliff Harris said. "In those early days
of football, there was no such thing as illegal roughness, and Ernie had broken
noses and broken knuckles, and everything was fair. I think that people have
forgotten about that era, but they laid the foundation of where football is
today, and he was one of those pillars."

Bob Lilly was in his
sixth season when Stautner joined Landry's staff as a defensive line coach in
1966. He knew Stautner as a tough-nosed player from his days with the Steelers
and saw it again as a coach.

"We're hitting the two-man sled, and we're supposed to hit it with our forearms, and Ernie says, 'You guys are hitting it like a bunch of girls. Let me show you how to hit it,' " Lilly recalled. "He comes up and almost knocked it over. By the third time, he hit this steel plate with his knuckle and broke his hand. He got our attention from
that point on."

http://pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/sports/steelerslive/s_424869.html

And, because he demonstrated a blue-collar work ethic (no doubt developed in his native Germany), he was a favorite of the long-suffering Steelers fans.

"Ernie's physical and relentless style of play helped the Steelers earn a reputation for being one of the NFL's toughest teams in the 1950s," Rooney said, mindful that the Steelers were 16-9-3 in Stautner's final two seasons, which included a playoff berth in 1962. "He was undersized for his position, but his strength and power were among his greatest assets."

"He was kind of the backbone of our Doomsday defenses," said Gil Brandt, the vice president of player personnel with the Cowboys from 1960-89. "He kind of coached like he played. He was a hard-working, hard-trying individual who had a lot of patience in developing young players. He was easy-going and well-liked. The thing with him was that he made everybody feel at home."

http://news.steelers.com/article/62905/

"The team in the 1950s was a lot better than anybody knew," said Rooney. "They played well. They didn't win championships, but some of that was because of injuries. Our reputation for being a tough team started a little bit before Ernie, but not to the extent that he would take it to.

"When people thought of the Steelers in the 1950s, they thought of Ernie Stautner."

http://www.dallascowboys.com/news.cfm?id=7438BC7C-C1BA-E12C-07CE962FB46D1FDB

Cowboys head coach Bill Parcells remembered having to coach against those Stautner defenses when he was first making his way in the NFL.

"He was the first one to bring all eight," recalled Parcells, referring to the numbers of guys at the line of scrimmage and rushing the quarterback - a forerunner to what Buddy Ryan began doing with the Bears. "He was tough."

http://www.cantonrep.com/index.php?ID=269853&Category=17

Lilly, a Hall of Fame defensive tackle, said that as soon as Stautner arrived, he demanded that his players pay attention to the little things in practice. “He said, ‘You guys hit that two-man sled like a bunch of girls.’ What he did was he put his right hand in a fist and came up and hit that sled as hard as he could, and he was stout,” Lilly said. “He hit it two or three times, and we were wide-eyed.

“There’s a half-inch metal plate behind that pad, and he hit that pad with his middle knuckle and broke a bone in his hand. He hit it again, and blood started squirting out,” Lilly said. “Boy, I can tell you he had our attention from then on.”

Rating the New Head Coach Hires: The First Time Coaches

Rating the New Head Coach Hires: The First Time Coaches :

B Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
I give the Saints a B for getting Payton. He is a respected quarterback guru (who will probably get a chance to show what he can do with Matt Leinert) and a fine offensive mind. He seems to have all the tools to be a big-time head coach, and he reminds me a little of John Gruden. He has a chance to turn around a struggling organization. He is probably about even with Jim Haslett.

C+ Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans
Kubiak reminds me of Mike Shanahan. Both the good and the bad. Kubiak seems highly organized, he has run one of the best offenses in the NFL for more than a decade in Denver with all sorts of players, and he is ready to be a head coach. And he seems to know how to run the ball. He was a player in the league, which neither helps nor hurts. Denver has had it share of below par quarterbacking ever since No. 7 left town, so it willbe interesting to see what Kubiak can do with David Carr. Reggie Bush will help. I do like Dom Capers, but, geez, Dom, get an offensive line, would ya?

C Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions
OK, this is just me. There is something aboutMarinelli that just says "football coach" to me. Whether he is a svelte Abe Gibron, who also sort of said "football coach" to me, is another matter. Idon't think you need to have been a coordinator before taking a head job. I do think it helps. I don't think you need to have a head coach at a lower level before taking a lead job. I do think it helps. I think Detroit is a mess of a situation and it may not matter who the head coach is there, they may not be able to be successful. Is Marinelli a step up from DickJauron? Probably not, but I think Jauron needed to go, because of the interim status thing. Is Marinelli astep up from Mariucci? No.

C- Scott Linehan, St. Louis Rams
Maybe I'm biased, but I thought that much of what Minnesota accomplished under Linehan's tenure as the offensive coordinator was due to Randy Moss tilting the field and Dante Culpepper being a fairly fast 255-pound quarterback with a big arm and running skills. I was never really impressed with the Vikes' consistency on offense. But they did score. Linehan did a pretty impressive job with Miami's offense last year. But the Fish were coming off the Ricky fiasco, got Ronnie Brown, and got Ricky back. Linehan has some pretty impressive college credentials as well. Is Linehan an upgrade over Martz? As a offensive mind, no, but as head coach, maybe.

D+ Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings
I have to admit that I was never a big fan of Philadelphia's offense, but it IS productive. Childress is given credit for much of Donavan McNabb's success. Maybe rightly so. And, if that is the case, then he has a lot to work with in Culpepper. I thinkDante's decision skills aren't as good as McNabb's, so there will be some problem there in adopting a pass-first West Coast offense that depends on a high completion percentage. Childress is a step up from Mike Tice, if for no other reason than it was time for Tice to go. I'm not overly impressed with Childress and think he's about Mike Mularkey. There were probably better candidates available.

F Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers
I think Mike McCarthy isn't even Mike Mularkey. When Andy Reid was hired as the Philadelphia coach, I gave that an F-, so you never know. But I think McCarthy wasn't even close to the best candidate available. I don't think he's ready. And I think he's come some spotty work in the past. He was the QB coach for Brett Favre for one season in which Favre threw for 4,000 yards. He was an offensive coordinator for New Orleans for five years. He had Jeff Blake, who did him proud for a year. And Aaron Brooks. Not all that great. Last year, he was the OC for the 49ers, where he oversaw the rapid development of Alex Smith. He is not an upgrade from Mike Sherman.

Eric Mangini, New York Jets F-
What is this about? I was going to make some derogatory comment about Mangini being Phil Bengtson, but Bengtson was much better prepared to be a head coach and actually deserved the job. I'm sorry. There is nothing about this guy that says "outstanding" to me. He took over a defense that was No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed in 2003 and No. 2 in 2004 and drove it to No. 17 in 2005. Now I know there were injuries and whatever, and those are just numbers, but why give this kid the job? I think that what Ted Cottrell did in his career is far more impressive. I think Norm Chow deserved a shot more. And I will tell you this, there is nothing about Mangini that says "step up from Herm Edwards." Definite stop down. Eric, you are welcome. By my giving you an "F-", you will now go out and make everyone forget Don Shula, who was 33 when hewas hired by the Colts in 1963, replacing one of my favorite coaches of all time, Weeb Ewbank.

Rating the NFL Coaching Hires: The Veteran Coaches

Rating the new head coach hires

A+ Art Shell, Oakland Raiders
The last hire of the year was the best. This will turnout to be one of those situations where the Bears hadto settle for Lovie Smith or Notre Dame had to settlefor Charlie Weis. Shell is the right man for the job. Art knows exactly how to be a head coach. He knows exactly how to coach the Raiders. There was only one person for this job, and it was Art. Bobby Petrino was not as good a fit for this job. Neither was KenWhisenhunt. This needed to be Art's job. Great hire byAl Davis, even if he was sorta forced into it.

A- Dick Jauron, Buffalo Bills
Jauron is a fine football coach, and he has shown the ability to be a successful head coach somewhat in the NFL. He will have about the same level of talent atBuffalo that he had in Chicago several years ago. And he will have one of the same problems: a young quarterback who may not be an NFL starter with veteran ability sitting on the bench. In Chicago, Jauron had Cade McNown, who was forced into a starting role for a playoff team and failed miserably, while Jim Miller had the support of the team. In Buffalo, Jauron islooking at JP Losman, while Kelly Holcombe may have the support of the team. But, long-term, I look forJauron to succeed.

B+ Herm Edwards, Kansas City Chiefs
Boy did the Chiefs want Herm. With Al Saunders sitting there, Carl Peterson went out and got Herm. And I think that's a plus. Also, he was a good to very good head coach for the Jets for most of his tenure there. I actually think he did OK last year, all things considered. How would Tony Dungy have done with Peyton Manning and Jim Sorgi hurt and out in week two or three? I would have like to see Al Saunders get a shot, but the Herm hire was a pretty good one.