Saturday, February 25, 2006

Shootin' the Brees: I'd Take Pennington

There are reports that the Jets are going to cut Chad Pennington because of his huge salary. Here's the math:

The team is about $26 million over the cap and needs to come to an agreement with Pennington before the start of free agency March 3.

Pennington's agent, Tom Condon, reportedly rejected a deal that would have reduced the quarterback's base salary from $9 million to $1 million.

The Jets started renegotiating with the franchise quarterback last week, hoping to slash his base pay to make his contract more salary-cap friendly.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=At2nGObED3qKvpTMq_Mtkl5DubYF?slug=ap-jets-pennington&prov=ap&type=lgns

And the Chargers are going to let Drew Brees go in free agency, supposedly.

San Diego general manager A. J. Smith said Monday the team has declined to designate Brees as its franchise or transition player.

If the Chargers had slapped either of the tags on Brees, he would be guaranteed nearly $10 million in a one-year salary next season. That's too rich for the Chargers, considering Brees was injured in the team's season finale, tearing the labrum in his throwing shoulder while trying to recover a fumble.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-chargers-brees&prov=ap&type=lgns

So two young quarterbacks, two bad shoulders. You are a NFL team. Which quarterback do you go for?

I like Drew Brees. Thought he was a heckuva QB out of Purdue. Thought the Dolphins should have picked him at the end of the first round in 2001, when, instead, they took Jamar Fletcher, the cornerback from Wisconsin (my brother-in-law, Dave-o, a huge Dolphin fan, almost had a cow, a whole steer, when the Dolphins announced that pick).

But, for my money, I would take Pennington on the open market. When healthy, I think Pennington is a better player. If they are both hurt, they are just hurt. But if they are both healthy, Pennington, in my mind, is the much better quarterback. Here are the numbers:

Brees
Season Team G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int

2001-02 San Diego 1 94.8 15 27 55.6 221 221.0 8.2 1 0
2002-03 San Diego 16 76.9 320 526 60.8 3284 205.3 6.2 17 16
2003-04 San Diego 11 67.5 205 356 57.6 2108 191.6 5.9 11 15
2004-05 San Diego 15 104.8 262 400 65.5 3159 210.6 7.9 27 7
2005-06 San Diego 16 89.2 323 500 64.6 3576 223.5 7.2 24 15
Career 59 84.9 1125 1809 62.2 12348 209.3 6.8 80 53

Pennington
2000-01 NY Jets 2 127.1 2 5 40.0 67 33.5 13.4 1 0
2001-02 NY Jets 2 79.6 10 20 50.0 92 46.0 4.6 1 0
2002-03 NY Jets 15 104.2 275 399 68.9 3120 208.0 7.8 22 6
2003-04 NY Jets 10 82.9 189 297 63.6 2139 213.9 7.2 13 12
2004-05 NY Jets 13 91.0 242 370 65.4 2673 205.6 7.2 16 9
2005-06 NY Jets 3 70.9 49 83 59.0 530 176.7 6.4 2 3
Career 45 92.1 767 1174 65.3 8621 191.6 7.3 55 30

I lot of what I like about Chad Pennington is from his 2002 season, which was a long time ago. But to me, his best is better than Brees's best. And Pennington's worst isn't that much worse than Brees's worst. I would be willing to gamble on Pennington coming back and being great again.

A team is going to have to shell out a great deal of money for Drew Brees. A team will have to load Pennington's contract with a bunch of incentives. The better deal is Chad Pennington.

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