Friday, November 18, 2005

Gridiron Grit: Picks with Spread and Confidence Points for Week Eleven

Here are my picks for Week Eleven. If you are gambling with these, good luck to you.

16 at Baltimore +4 (Pittsburgh)
15 at Cincinnati +6 (Indianapolis)
14 at San Francisco +12.5 (Seattle)
13 NY Jets +13 (at Denver)
12 New Orleans +9.5 (at New England)
11 Philadelphia +7 (at NY Giants)
10 Jacksonville -4 (at Tennessee)
9 at Atlanta -6 (Tampa Bay)
8 Arizona +9.5 (at St. Louis)
7 Miami +2.5 (at Cleveland)
6 at Chicago +3 (Carolina)
5 at Green Bay -4.5 (Minnesota)
4 at Houston +7 (Kansas City)
3 at Washington -6 (Oakland)
2 Buffalo +11 (at San Diego)
1 Detroit +8 (at Dallas)

16 at Baltimore +4 (Pittsburgh) NOTE: In my newspaper, this line was off, but I looked for the line online and found Pittsburgh -4. That's what I'm going with. I am confident that the Ravens will cover this, win this game outright, and then have their problems. This has all the makings of a big upset. I'm putting all my points on the Ravens.

15 at Cincinnati +6 (Indianapolis) The Bengals are six point home dogs. Indy won their last really big regular-season game of the year last week, beating the Pats at New England. I think that the Bengals at least cover, if not win outright.

14 at San Francisco +12.5 (Seattle) Am I alone in liking Ken Dorsey? Maybe. Anyway, San Francisco is not that bad, at least I don't think. And I don't know if Seattle is that good, yet, or not. But this has the appearances of a forget-it game to the 'Hawks, and I think that the Niners cover.

13 NY Jets +13 (at Denver) OK, so here's the thing. I continue to not believe in the Broncos, and I continue to believe in Herm Edwards. Am I nuts? Well. Am I? ANSWER ME!

12 New Orleans +9.5 (at New England) The Saints never do anything they are supposed to do. They are supposed to get crushed this Sunday at Foxboro. They of course
will make it a close game. They have the receivers to do it.

11 Philadelphia +7 (at NY Giants) I hate to say this, but here it goes: I think Donovan McNabb's injury will help the Eagles for one week. I think it'll force the Eagles to do some different things on offense, which will be beneficial.

10 Jacksonville -4 (at Tennessee) The Jags have found an answer for Fred Taylor's injury-prone ways: Greg Jones. They had been dependant on Taylor to be healthy. But now, they can still run the ball without him. Tennessee comes up short in trying to win this one.

9 at Atlanta -6 (Tampa Bay) Chris Simms had a good game last week, so I'm betting on him struggling on the road at Atlanta. And I think Atlanta will be able to run against the Tampa D.

8 Arizona +9.5 (at St. Louis) Can Arizona cover? That's the question here. With this many points, all the Cards need to do is load up against the run. And the Arizona wideouts should have some open space against the Rams secondary.

7 Miami +2.5 (at Cleveland) I like the Dolphins running game more than the Browns'. It is a close call, so I'm going with the points.

6 at Chicago +3 (Carolina) The only reason I'm picking the Bears is that they are home dogs. It'll be cold in Chicago, and the Bears will be used to the weather. If they can stop Steve Smith, and I think they can, the Bears win.

5 at Green Bay -4.5 (Minnesota) Boy, the Pack is beat up. But with the addition of Samdon Gado, GB has a running game. That should be enough to cover against the Vikes, unless Green Bay has a complete special teams meltdown against Minnesota, ala the Gints.

4 at Houston +7 (Kansas City) Houston is coming around. They are a touchdown home dog, and KC isn't that great on the road. Texans win outright.

3 at Washington -6 (Oakland) I think that this could be a close low-scoring game, but Oakland has had some troubles against the run.

2 Buffalo +11 (at San Diego) Buffalo should be able to contain LT and keep it within eleven, unless JP Losman has a terrible game.

1 Detroit +8 (at Dallas) I am putting all of my point on Joey Harrington being able to keep it close against Dallas. The Cow Pokes didn't really look all that good against a struggling Iggles club.

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